Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, September 11, 2008 725 am EDT

Ike is an unusual storm, to say the least. Reconnaissance aircraft have not found an increase in winds with Ike overnight and they remain at 100 mph, which is anomalously low for the reported central pressure. The central pressure being reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 946 millibars and this pressure would normally correspond to a borderline category 3/4 hurricane. Ike has a very large wind field, particularly on the north side of the storm. However, it continues to have a small inner core with an eye just under 10 miles in diameter. There has been a double wind maximum, although hurricane hunter observations suggest that the outer wind band is beginning to contract. The global models are still forecasting a favorable upper level environment right up to and through landfall and Ike is forecast to strengthen to at least mid to upper Category 3 strength and possibly low end Category 4 strength with 130 to 140 mph winds prior to landfall. It should be noted that the GFDL and HWRF models continue to forecast that Ike will peak at Category 4 strength during the day Friday and potentially make landfall at that strength.
 
I still think Ike will strengthen today to Category 3 strength and then strengthen some more tonight into Friday and reach borderline Category 3-Category 4 strength (130 to 140 mph winds) sometime on Friday. I then am forecasting Ike to maintain borderline Category 3-Category 4 strength (130 to 140 mph) right through landfall, which is now forecast to occur around 5 am Eastern/4 am Central Time Saturday morning. I want to explicitly state that this is a VERY DANGEROUS situation. A borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane is forecast to make landfall somewhere between Matagorda and Galveston early Saturday morning.
 
Ike has turned back to the west-northwest and is moving at a forward speed of 9 mph. The track model guidance are in good agreement on a continued west-northwest motion today through Friday to the south of a strong ridge of high pressure that extends from the southeastern United States to Texas. The model guidance forecast that the portion of the ridge of high pressure over Texas will weaken on Friday night and Saturday and this would likely cause Ike to turn to the northwest and north. There continues to be some disagreement among the models as to how soon and how sharp of a turn will occur. The HWRF model forecasts a landfall near Calhoun County, while the GFDL model, consensus models and the European model forecast a landfall in Brazoria County. The GFS model is forecasting a landfall near Matagorda and Port O' Connor early Saturday morning.

Here is my thinking as of this morning: I agree wholeheartedly with the National Hurricane Center and am thinking that Ike will come ashore somewhere between San Antonio Bay and Galveston early Saturday morning around 5 am Eastern/4 am Central. This area is centered right on Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 to 140 mph. The forecast track of Ike is still somewhat uncertain and all interests along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and its effects will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Cameron, Louisiana to Port Mansfield, Texas. For the latest information about Ike, including current watches and warnings, please visit our Hurricane Ike Page.
 
Residents that are under mandatory evacuation orders, please complete your preparations and leave. This is a very serious hurricane threat. A large and destructive storm surge will cross the middle and upper Texas coast. Failure to evacuate may result in loss of life.

Expected impacts from Ike County by County:
 
Matagorda County: Catastrophic damage is expected. Most structures below 15 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. A storm surge of 15 to 22 feet with wave action of up to 10 feet on top of that. Sustained winds of 110 to 125 mph with gusts to 155 mph. Complete failure of most homes is likely along with the entire power system.

Brazoria County: Extreme damage is expected. Most structures below 10 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. A storm surge of 15 to 22 feet with wave action of up to 15 feet on top of that. The storm surge will inundate nearly the entire southern one-third to one-half of the county. Sustained winds of 110 to 125 mph with gusts to 155 mph are expected. Complete failure of most homes well inland from wind and the entire power system will likely fail.
 
Galveston County: Extensive damage is expected. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet with wave action of 10 to 15 feet on top of that. Sustained winds of 100 to 120 mph. Extensive damage to homes from wind and surge is expected.
Harris County: Extensive damage is expected. A storm surge of 15 to 20 feet is expected along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4 to 8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Hurricane Carla along western Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 100 to 120 mph for the southeast one-half of the county and 90 to 110 mph sustained winds across the remainder of Harris County. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power outages and widespread heavy vegetation damage.
Fort Bend and Wharton County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90 to 115 mph with gust to 135 mph. Extensive wind damage to homes, roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.
 
Waller and Austin Counties: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 85 to 100mph with gust to 120 mph. Heavy wind damage to homes, some complete failures of homes is possible.
 
Montgomery County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75 to 95 mph with gust to 110 mph. Extensive tree damage is expected across the entire county.
 
Liberty County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75 to 95mph with gust to 110 mph. Heavy wind damage to most structures.
 
It should be noted that surge levels will exceed 5 feet above normal along the upper Texas coast beginning Friday morning. Maximum surge levels will occur on Friday night through Saturday morning. Most storm surge areas will be uninhabitable for several weeks.
 
Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph are expected to reach the coast of Texas around noon Friday. Winds of at least tropical storm force will then last for about 24 hours straight.
 
Hurricane force winds will reach the coast of Texas, from Port O' Connor to Sabine Pass before midnight Friday evening. Hurricane force winds will then last for about 12 hours.
 
Peak winds of 100 to 130 mph are expected across coastal areas from Matagorda to High Island, especially where the eyewall makes landfall. This area does include Freeport, Galveston and Houston!!

As already stated, this is an extremely large hurricane and the effects will be very far reaching. Tropical storm force winds will extend outward up to 260 miles at landfall with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 120 miles. Ike's very strong winds will extend well inland due to the hurricane's accelerating speed at landfall. Damaging hurricane force winds are likely as far inland as 150 miles from the coast. Areas roughly along and east of Interstate 45 up to 150 miles inland will experience hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas and Tyler and quite possibly into southeastern Oklahoma.
 
In conclusion, this is a VERY DANGEROUS hurricane. A borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane is forecast to make landfall on the Texas coast somewhere in Matagorda or Brazoria Counties around 5 am Eastern/4 am Central Time Saturday morning. Residents under evacuation orders, please complete your preparations and leave. This is a very serious hurricane threat. A large and destructive storm surge will cross the middle and upper Texas coast. Failure to evacuate may result in loss of life.
 
The next update on Hurricane Ike will be issued by 2 pm EDT/1 pm CDT This Afternoon.